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Table 3 Model performance measures for mortality and MACE risks in the discovery phase

From: Plasma metabolomics provides new insights into the relationship between metabolites and outcomes and left ventricular remodeling of coronary artery disease

Predictive model

AUC

IDI (95% CI)

Continuous NRI (95% CI)

Prediction of death

 Metabolomic + clinicala

83.7

  

 Metabolomicb

80.9

0.072 (− 0.067 to 0.238)

0.013 (− 0.259 to 0.263)

 TMAO + clinicalc

76.6

0.096 (0.031–0.235)

0.230 (− 0.032 to 0.446)

 Clinicald

77.0

0.096 (0.012–0.231)

0.121 (− 0.127 to 0.369)

Prediction of MACE

 Metabolomic + clinicale

67.4

  

 Metabolomicf

66.0

0.066 (0.005–0.124)

0.097 (−0.049 to 0.238)

 TMAO + clinicalg

59.8

0.068 (0.029–0.118)

0.144 (0.005–0.324)

 Clinicalh

58.4

0.072 (0.034–0.128)

0.106 (− 0.001–0.321)

  1. The metabolic variables screened from LASSO, TMAO, and the 17 traditional clinical factors including age, sex, AST, eGFR, DM, HyperT, CHOL, HDLC, PPI, ACEI, BB, CCB, current smoking, family history of CVD, SYNTAX, SBP, and GLUC were input into multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analysis to fit model, using a forward and backward stepwise process based on AIC (Akaike information criterion). The model with the smallest AIC value was considered the best and variables with P < 0.1 were retained. IDI (integrated discrimination improvement) and continuous NRI (net reclassification improvement) were calculated by comparing the Metabolomic + clinical model with TMAO + clinical and Clinical model, and the Metabolomic model with Clinical model, 95% CIs were calculated by 1000 bootstrap resampling
  2. aMetabolomic + clinical model = Dulcitol, β-Pseudouridine, 3,3ʹ,5-Triiodo-l-thyronine, Kynurenine, age, current smoking, GLUC, AST, SBP
  3. bMetabolomic model = Dulcitol, Kynurenine, Cyclic AMP, 3,3ʹ,5-Triiodo-l-thyronine, β-Pseudouridine
  4. cTMAO model = TMAO, age, AST, current smoking, SBP, GLUC
  5. dClinical model = age, AST, HDLC, CCB, current smoking, SYNTAX, SBP, GLUC
  6. eMetabolomic + clinical model = lysoPC 20:2, 5-methyluridine, kynurenine, L-tryptophan, AST, DM, PPI, SYNTAX
  7. fMetabolomic model = lysoPC 20:2, 5-methyluridine, kynurenine, l-tryptophan, d-sorbitol, phenyllactate
  8. gTMAO + clinical model = TMAO, AST, DM, PPI, CCB, SYNTAX
  9. hClinical model = AST, DM, PPI, CCB, SYNTAX. AUC = area under the curve, other abbreviations are as in Table 1
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Cell & Bioscience

ISSN: 2045-3701

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